Edit: this is based off of numbers available at the current moment. It does have the possibility to get much worse, and if it does then this post will either be deleted or heavily modified.
Guys we need to stop freaking out about the whole corona virus. Yes people have died and many are sick, i pray for those who have been affected by the virus, and it is totally acceptable to be fearful if you live in an area that you KNOW is highly contaminated. However, the WORLDWIDE growing panic and fear needs to stop. As of today, the virus has infected around 7,711 (from what I've gathered, 7,711 seems like a fair number to use in my calculations, numbers I can find range from around 7000 to 8800) people, and the total deaths is currently 170. Now, take 170, divide that by 7,711, and you get 0.02204642718, or a rounded 2%, that means that the chances of dying from the virus as of now are 2% (same math lines up with worldmeters.info's number, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, and this is assuming the worst, as in using low estimated numbers for infections, high estimated numbers for deaths to)! Now you might be thinking "well 2% is still kind of a big deal when dealing with a life", and yes that is true, however those who have died are an average of 55 and male (according to the BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51305526) AND many have pre-existing conditions "Pre-existing conditions reported so far include hypertension and other cardiovascular disorders, diabetes, liver disorders, and other respiratory disease" (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china/questions-answers). Still not enough comfort for everyone? Well a vaccine is already in the works, WHO expects that to begin phase 1 trials by June- July
So, in conclusion, the corona virus isn't nearly as deadly as everyone has been making it out to be. Again, many people have a good reason to fear the virus, but a lot don't, if your in good health and reasonably young, your probobaly good.
This post isn't targeted at anyone in particular. And is NOT meant to be controversial, but rather educate, so that people can learn and decide for themselves whether or not this is something to get in a fuss about. If you have any problem or corrections, please post them in a polite manner in the comments. Any faults will be searched and corrected hopefully within a timeful manner.
Thank you for reading, let me know what you think in the comments if you wish, I would like to hear about what everyone thinks of my little article. I don't love to be serious but sometimes I just cant help myself.
Another point, 15-30% of common colds are caused by a corona virus. (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521.php)
Please read the pinned comments, these are comments that I found factual, interesting, or were simply taken at a different view than i have.
Carina viruses themselves are just forms of viruses that just have shapes like the corona the sun gives off. There have been many corona viruses before, but this one strain is newer and most likely much deadlier than let’s say, the common cold as you keep mentioning.@e1theoriginalguy
Well, yes, but if you think about it, yesterday, there were only 142 deaths. Ow, there are 170. It has risen a lot. Also I don’t really understand your math, the percentage you showed is just the percentage of dead compared to alive infected poeple, it’s not the mortality rate. This virus takes time to kill also. I agree it’s not that deadly, but it is more deadly than you propose.
Ok. Well admittedly it’s a very underwhelming disease compared to its expectation, health officials of: professional doctors, virologist, head pharmaceutical company leaders/ head researches and many many up more health professionals have guess roughly 75.63 million (It might have been 65 but still) deaths, and not pleasant ones, true it is nearly useless against healthy humans, a weakened immune system means coronavirus has a higher ability to infect and kill, so it piggybacks on other diseases attacks, injuries etc. Overall it is unlikely to mass spread but for the very young, very old, injured and ill it could be a death sentence. And it’s not really a pleasant death if it does occur. Gastrointestinal and respiratory inflammation fever etc. And it is airborne.
This seems fitting, you make it sound to harmless, at the end of the day it is still deadly and a death is a death, not everyone if young forever, it’s better to keep clean and try and stop it before it kills even 0.2 percent of the population. Which would add up.
Sorry to down things a bit, but if everyone’s optimistic the problem gets left.
I know this is kind of off topic but to add:
Not all infections are going to be reported by a long way, but those severe enough to kill are far more likely to be. Basically, a death is more likely to be recorded than an infection. So the actual percentage is probably lower - but it could change as cases get older, and things could definitely get worse.
@e1theoriginalguy That makes sense, but it's not nearly as safe as you say it to be.
@jamesPLANESii Some guy in indonesia has been deemed got some sort of early mark of corona but then he recovered, now there's one in bali that are truly get corona
@metallicplanes yes i see what your saying, also the infectivity is quite high, i cant find it now but i read yesterday that it was somewhere around 3 on the CDC's scale. But i have to disagree with "it can come from anywhere..." Scientists are very aware of where it comes from/ how it can be spread. There isn't anyway to be 100% safe from it, but there are steps to prevent infection, such as what the CDC recommends, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/about/prevention.html
The chances of dying are pretty low. But there is no telling the chances of being infected. And the number of dead increasing each day is very high. Thing about this is that it can come from anywhere, so there really isn't a way to be safe from it.
It is a lot more deadly than you are saying it to be because if you think from the death rate, it's pretty deadly.
No xD it’s ok, I hate it when people complain about someone debating with them. I welcome debate :) @e1theoriginalguy
@shipster Also upon reading your original comments I realize you were simply talking about a prediction, i apologize if you felt frustrated or felt if i were talking down to you.
They expect 75 million deaths before cure, a lot of this will be multiple diseases cooperating, the old and already unwell. But at the moment it’s not too bad. And you have consent to post that paragraph wherever
Edit: the mortality rate isn’t the death/infected it’s deaths/survivors+deaths
@jamesPLANESii the corona virus is not new, the outbreak however is, as i mentioned before, 15-30% of common colds are caused by a corona virus, so yes, people have survived, Like any other virus theres probobaly thousands of unique mutations so it's difficult to say for sure. That question is hard to answer because of how multi-faced it can be.
Has anyone actually recovered from it though? The disease is in it’s early stages atm...
@Botfinder What this is saying is that by chance, a simulation of the virus was ran and the final result came out to 75 million, so it's simply an educated guess by some scientists, but interesting non the less
I’ll link the site, no telling if it’s viable xD
Link
@e1theoriginalguy
@shipster I dont believe it, I cant find any articles about the subject and if we're hearing about this virus with 170 deaths im SURE we would of had a far bigger response by the media to a virus that killed 65 million. If you can find a viable source I will look into it.
I don’t have any context, all O saw was that some scientist predicted 65m loss 3 months BEFORE the outbreak actually began so...I’m not sure if I believe it either, just putting it out there @e1theoriginalguy
@shipster I could believe that if more context was provided, like 75 million before vaccines? all time? your numbers are simply a bit too vague.
Apparently some scientist predicted a Coronavirus to kill 65m people BEFORE the outbreak began...I’m not concerned about the virus, but the Lunar New Year is certainly going to spread it
@e1theoriginalguy makes them look better
@Tully2001 True, but I have chosen to take these things at face value. Also i would like to know what china would gain from censoring a disease.
@Axartar this is true, and i guess it is mostly targeted those who are either uneducated about it, or simply blowing it out of the water for comedic effect, aka memes. I do like your point and it I will add it to the post with your name included and also with your consent
Edit: im going to guess 75 million is an estimate of most of human history? or did you mean 75 million infections
Me already moving to greenland:
Years of academy training wasted!
@edensk think realistically, lots of people get the common cold? right? but its extremely rare that anyone dies from it unless its in combination with something else, like a preexisting condition . 15-30% of common colds are the corona virus, so its not necessarily new, we know how these things work because we've observed them before. Also the infection rates could be astronomically higher for all we know, but simply not reported, therefore theoretically bumping the percentage way down. I could always be wrong, but it's my mentality that the mortality rates probobaly wont rise too much more.
@WNP78 As i stated, these calculations are worst case, so i used (within a reasonable measure) the lower end of the infectivity rates, and the higher number of recorded deaths, so this perentage is likely to be a bit higher than what it actually is. however i feel that it helps drive the point of the post.